About MPM (Market Probability Model)

Our Mission

Replace guesswork with structure. Every zone is studied using Reach Probability and Reaction Probability — so you can understand how price has historically behaved around a level, and learn to read market structure for yourself.

Our Approach

We don't predict price, and we don't tell anyone what to trade. We study two things: how often price has historically reached a zone (Reach Probability), and how often it has reacted once there (Reaction Probability). It's a framework for understanding market behaviour — reaction, not prediction.

Our Community

Traders working across major futures markets use MPM's research to better understand how price interacts with structure.

The Founder

MPM was built by a founder with over 30 years of experience in the markets, working alongside a small team with decades of combined market experience. After watching for years how price behaves around key levels, they set out to solve a simple, persistent gap: charting tools generate endless support and resistance levels, but never show which ones have historically mattered or how price has behaved at them.

It's built by people who've sat in the same seat — so it's shaped around the questions traders actually ask at a level, not theory.

MPM distills that experience into a structured, statistically grounded research framework, validated against seven years of historical market data (2019–2026) — turning decades of market observation into something traders can study and learn from.

The Story

MPM was born from frustration. Most "signal" services hand you a level and leave you alone — no context, no probability, no understanding of why it matters.

We built MPM to answer the questions that actually help you learn: How often has price reached this kind of zone? When it does, how often has it reacted? And what does that historical behaviour teach us about market structure?

Every data point we publish is transparent and verifiable. Our research tracks every zone — including the ones that don't hold. No cherry-picking, no hiding the misses.

Why MPM's Research Is Different

• • Dual probability framework — We study both Reach Probability and Reaction Probability, not just one.
• • Structured understanding — Every zone is evaluated for how price has historically reached and reacted to it.
• • Full transparency — Every zone is tracked, including the ones that don't work. No cherry-picking.
• • Historical validation — Zones are backtested and studied against real, historical market behaviour.

By the Numbers

• • 30+ years of founder trading experience, plus a team with decades of combined market experience
• • 7 years of documented historical research and backtesting (2019–2026)
• • A method applied across major futures markets — not tied to a fixed list of instruments
• • Thousands of zone interactions documented and tracked across the dataset