MPM Markets Research

MPM Markets Research

Independent quantitative research on market structure, futures markets, statistical testing, systematic trading behavior, and evidence-based market analysis.

The MPM Research Library contains original studies examining market behavior through historical data, statistical testing, and quantitative analysis. Research is published to encourage transparency, challenge common market assumptions, and promote evidence-based thinking.

Publications

3 papers
  • Free Public Research
    Pattern Research|July 2026

    Fair Value Gaps Work — Until You Try to Trade Them

    A Four-Market Investigation of Whether the Most-Marketed Concept in Retail Trading Has a Tradeable Edge

    A four-market investigation testing whether the ICT Fair Value Gap has a tradeable edge. It evaluates roughly 40,000 occurrences across ES, NQ, GC and SI on 5-minute, 15-minute and 1-hour data, with every trade resolved on 1-minute bars, and concludes the reaction is real but not tradeable after honest costs.

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    By Dhaval Barot·MPM Markets Research·ESNQGCSI·5m / 15m / 1H
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  • Free Public Research
    Pattern Research|June 2026

    The Double Bottom Under the Microscope

    A Six-Market Investigation of Whether a Famous Reversal Pattern Actually Predicts Price

    A six-market investigation testing whether the double bottom has statistically reliable predictive power. The study evaluates 13,704 detected patterns using randomized benchmarks across NQ, ES, GC, SI, CL and HG and concludes the pattern carries no statistically reliable predictive edge once market drift is removed.

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    By Dhaval Barot·MPM Markets Research·NQESGCSICLHG·1 Hour
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  • Free Public Research
    Research Paper|June 22, 2026

    Testing the "Gaps Always Fill" Myth Across Six Futures Markets

    Evidence From Nasdaq-100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, Crude Oil Futures, and Copper Futures

    This study examines gap-fill behaviour across Nasdaq-100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, Crude Oil Futures, and Copper Futures using seven years of historical data. Large gaps display short-term persistence, but most eventually fill within approximately ten trading sessions. Eight strategy implementations were tested, yet none produced a statistically reliable edge after costs.

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    By Dhaval Barot·MPM Markets Research
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