MPM Zone

What is an MPM Zone?

An MPM Zone is a statistically derived price area generated using the MPM (Market Probability Model).

Unlike traditional support and resistance, which are often drawn subjectively by individual traders, MPM Zones are produced through a consistent statistical methodology applied across historical market data. The methodology used to generate these zones is proprietary and intentionally not published.

The purpose of an MPM Zone is not to predict market direction. Its purpose is to establish a consistent reference area where historical market behaviour can be measured objectively across comparable historical observations. An MPM Zone is the object that Market Probability is measured around — the zone is the where, and Market Probability is the framework that measures what has historically happened there.

What a Published MPM Zone Looks Like

Every MPM Daily Analysis follows the same consistent structure, allowing historical market behaviour to be interpreted consistently across different markets and trading sessions.

A published MPM Zone typically includes:

• Support (S1) — Example Price Range · Example % Reach Probability · Example % Reaction Probability · Example Rating
• Resistance (R1) — Example Price Range · Example % Reach Probability · Example % Reaction Probability · Example Rating

Every published zone contains four observable elements: a statistically derived price zone, a published Reach Probability (a forward, per-session probability for that trading day), a published Reaction Probability, and a qualitative Rating summarizing the historical evidence.

The Reaction Probability and Rating describe historical observations; the Reach Probability is a forward, per-session estimate for that trading day. None of them are forecasts, trade recommendations, or guarantees of future market behaviour.

Why MPM Uses Zones

Many forms of technical analysis begin by manually identifying important price levels, and different analysts often identify different support and resistance levels on the same chart.

MPM takes a different approach. Rather than asking "Where do I think support or resistance exists?", the framework asks "Can statistically derived price areas be identified consistently, and can historical market behaviour around those areas be measured objectively?"

Once those price areas have been identified, historical market behaviour can be measured around them. Those measurements become the foundation for Reach Probability, Reaction Probability, Calibration, and the research published throughout the MPM framework.

MPM Perspective

An MPM Zone is not valuable simply because price reaches it. Its value comes from the historical behaviour that has been measured around comparable zones.

Every published zone becomes a common reference point for research. From that reference point, MPM studies questions such as: how frequently comparable zones were historically reached; how price historically behaved after interaction; how consistently published historical probabilities matched observed historical outcomes; and how behaviour differed across markets, market conditions, and time.

The emphasis is always on measured historical evidence rather than assumed market importance.

Published Zone Structure

MPM publishes multiple statistically derived zones above and below the current market.

Support (S1)

First statistical support zone

Support (S2)

Second statistical support zone

Support (S3)

Third statistical support zone

Resistance (R1)

First statistical resistance zone

Resistance (R2)

Second statistical resistance zone

Resistance (R3)

Third statistical resistance zone

Each published zone is accompanied by a published measurement set, typically including a Published Price Zone, a Reach Probability (forward, per-session), a Reaction Probability, and a Rating (such as Favorable, Moderate, or Caution).

Together these form the standard research framework used throughout MPM Daily Analysis. The Reach Probability is a forward, per-session estimate for that trading day; the Reaction Probability and Rating describe historical observations associated with the published zone. None are trading instructions.

How MPM Zones Are Used

Within the MPM framework, every published zone follows the same research sequence:

What an MPM Zone Is Not

An MPM Zone is not:

• a guaranteed turning point,
• a buy or sell signal,
• a prediction of future price,
• manually drawn support or resistance,
• evidence that price must react,
• or a substitute for independent analysis and risk management.

A published zone identifies where historical market behaviour has been measured — not what the market must do next.

How This Fits Into MPM

MPM Zones form the foundation of the MPM research framework. Every published Reach Probability and Reaction Probability is measured relative to an MPM Zone. The same framework appears throughout MPM in different forms.

Public

• Learning Center — public knowledge base explaining the concepts, terminology, and research framework behind MPM.
• Research Papers — public research publication documenting historical studies, methodology, findings, limitations, and null results.
• Daily Analysis — public daily publication of statistically derived MPM Zones together with their forward, per-session Reach Probability, historical Reaction Probability, and supporting context.

Member-only

• Reaction Library — member-only library documenting thousands of historical price interactions around published MPM Zones for structured educational study.
• Backtest Library — member-only library containing transparent historical evaluations of trading ideas developed using the MPM research framework.
• Alerts — member-only service delivering the published Daily Analysis before the trading session.
• Intelligence Circle — member-only research environment containing advanced market research, historical investigations, and trading strategies developed using the MPM research framework.

Although MPM Zones are presented as support and resistance for familiarity, they are fundamentally research objects used to study historical market behaviour.